VST Tillers Tractor: Bounce Back on Card?

Comex: Cruide Oil $60-57 on cards???

Monthly Chart:

• Above monthly chart shows triangle breakdown and as an effect we observe sharp fall in crude.
• On daily chart crude Oil is in oversold zone. Thus at present its not advisable to fresh short selling in Crude Oil.
• As an effect of oversold condition one bounce back is expected till $86-90.
• There is a $60-57 is on cards in coming months. 

Buy Texmaco Rail & Engineering

Positional- Buy Texmaco Rail CMP- 93.20 Target- 105 SL- 89 closing basis.

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 21 Aug 2014

• FIIs bought 7032 contracts of Index Future (bought 2777 long contracts and 4255 short contracts were squared off) with net OI decreasing by 1478 contracts. FIIs were net buyers on yesterday.

• Nifty made fresh new life time high and formed bearish engulfing Candlestick pattern suggest probable red signal for the bull camp. Also the Gann fan showing nifty is at resistance zone and on hourly chart nifty broke the channel suggest bearish signal.

• If we observed in last rally of nifty it’s took 8 trading session and fall down. Now in this rally 8^th trading session over and nifty almost rallied 382 points & took pause in bull rally.

• Nifty may fall and retrace in next 1-2 trading sessions and possible target comes at 7800 – 7785. This downside possibility is invalid if nifty open & trade for one hour above 7920 then upside rally possible up to 7960 – 8000. 

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 20 Ayg. 2014

• FIIs bought 11416 contracts of Index Future (bought 9083 long contracts and 2333 short contracts were squared off) with net OI increasing by 6750 contracts. FIIs were net buyers on today.

• Nifty made life time high 7918.55 and FIIs buying long contracts & at new high they (FIIs) squaring shorts suggest well sign for bulls. But from last 7 trading sessions nifty continually closed above its previous day close and today formed a doji Candlestick pattern suggest probable red signal for the bulls. Nifty may fall and retrace in next 1-2 trading sessions.

• We may see 7880 – 7825 (spot) as support zone and at upside 7920 – 7945 – 8000 (spot) is a resistance zone. 

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 14 Aug. 2014

• FIIs bought 18455 contracts of Index Future (bought 27460 long contracts and 9005 short contracts were added) with net OI increasing by 36465 contracts. FIIs were net buyers on today.

• Though IIP and CPI data was disappointed but the market turns into the green and closed above 20 days SMA suggest bullish in nature. We observed market was rising but some stocks were corrected badly which is not a good sign for bulls.

• We may see 7695 – 7675 (spot) as an important support zone and at upside 7790 – 7825 (spot) is a resistance zone. 

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 13 Aug 2014

• FIIs bought 36214 contracts of Index Future (bought 10668 long contracts and 25546 short contracts were square off) with net OI decreasing by 14878 contracts. FIIs were net buyers on today.

• As discussed in last write up- “FIIs squared off short contracts near support zone 50 day EMA hence one pull back up to 7680-7715 is on cards.” and nifty rallied almost 101 points today and tested above suggested levels.

• After fall of Friday session nifty second time gap up open yesterday. In this series market either open gap up or down till now. IIP and CPI data has disappointed the market and we will see the gap down opening tomorrow.

• We may see 7675-7685 (spot) as an important support zone and at upside 7640 – 7655 (spot) is a resistance zone.

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 12 Aug 2014

• FIIs bought 4311 contracts of Index Future (bought 3234 long contracts and 1077 short contracts were square off) with net OI increasing by 2157 contracts. FIIs were net buyers on yesterday.

• FII’s went into panic mode on Friday after a big gap down and squared off Huge Long Position in Index Futures which were getting rollovered from March Series & on yesterday (Monday) there was a gap up opening observed, FIIs squared off short contracts near support zone 50 day EMA hence one pull back up to 7680-7715 is on cards.

• Nifty has resistance at 7680 – 7715 (Spot) & support levels comes at 7595 – 7540(spot). 

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 6- Aug 2014

• FIIs sold 5272 contracts of Index Future (sold 2208 long contracts and 3064 short contracts were added) with net OI increasing by 856 contracts. FIIs were net sellers on today.

• As discussed in last write up – “Nifty has to break Friday’s high 7716.70 (Spot) to remain bullish in next session otherwise massive selling pressure is possible.”  And as nifty break these resistance shoot up. This upward momentum may continue ahead.

• Nifty has taken support at 20 days SMA and get bounced but trader has to be caution as FIIs are adding shorts when market is trying to test new high & booking profit in longs which suggest they (FIIs) are using high as a shorting opportunity & book profits.

• Nifty has resistance at 7796 – 7840 (Spot) & support levels comes at 7713 – 7690 – 7673 (spot). 

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 5- Aug 2014

• FIIs bought 7492 contracts of Index Future (bought 9177 long contracts and 1685 short contracts were added) with net OI increasing by 10862 contracts. FIIs were net buyers on yesterday.

• Nifty today bounced back & closed above 20 days SMA which is a good positive sign. Nifty has to break Friday’s high 7716.70 (Spot) to remain bullish in next session otherwise massive selling pressure is possible.  

• RBI monetary policy review will be announced by tomorrow so big movement is expected in 1-2 trading sessions.

• Nifty has resistance at 7716 – 7740 (Spot) & support levels comes at 7620 – 7585. Nifty

Buy Wock Pharma

Analysis:

• After made top in month of May 2014 stock starts correcting and forming a base near 560 levels and consolidating in range from more than 2 months.

• Stock has come out of range after big consolidation by breaking previous swing high and given a breakout.

• Stock is trading above its 20 days SMA, 50 days EMA & 200 day EMA suggest strong uptrend.

• Also during the breakout volume is rising which supports this breakout. 

Strategy: Buy Wock Pharma at CMP- 658 and add on dips for possible Target- 750 - 780 with stop below 620 on daily closing basis.

Nifty & FIIs Data Analysis for 25 July 2014

• FIIs sold 2168 contracts of Index Future (sold 5578 long contracts and 3410 short contracts were covered) with net OI decreasing by 8988 contracts. FIIs were net seller today.

• Nifty made life high and at same time FIIs started both selling long & covering short contracts. In this rally mid cap & small cap stocks are not participating & also advance-decline ration not favorable. It’s advisable to traders that follow strict stop loss. Other side the volume is not supporting this rally. There will be a big explosive move expected tomorrow.

• Nifty may test 7845 – 7895 & support levels comes at 7805 – 7770 – 7730.  Tomorrow is a weekly closing and bulls will try to close above 7850 & bears will try to close below 7730. 

24-Jul-14
Client Type	Future Index Long	Future Index Short
Client	45.08%	47.69%
DII	0.39%	0.55%
FII	46%	31%
Pro	9%	21%
Total	100%	100%

Nifty & FIIs Analysis for 24 July 2014

• FIIs bought 1330 contracts of Index Future (bought 11407 long contracts and 10077 short contracts were added) with net OI increasing by 21484 contracts. FIIs were net buyers today.

• Nifty made life high and at same time FIIs started adding short contracts on high. Nifty trading near strong resistance 7800 so all long trade need a strict stop losses. There will be a big explosive move expected in 1-2 days.

• Nifty may test 7820 – 7845 & support levels comes at 7760 – 7615 – 7570.  

23-Jul-14
Client Type	Future Index Long	Future Index Short
Client	44.43%	48.06%
DII	0.39%	0.31%
FII	47%	32%
Pro	8%	20%
Total	100%	100%

Nifty & FII Data Analysis for 23 July 2014

• FIIs bought 31056 contracts of Index Future (bought 29496 long contracts and 1560 short contracts were squared off) with net OI increasing by 27936 contracts. FIIs were net buyers today.

• Nifty heading towards life time high and FIIs covering short contracts and adding longs is a very positive signal. There will be a big explosive move expected in 1-2 days.

• Nifty may test 7790 – 7820 – 7870 & support levels comes at 7740 – 7685. 

22-Jul-14
Client Type	Future Index Long	Future Index Short
Client	44.63%	47.22%
DII	0.77%	0.32%
FII	46%	31%
Pro	8%	22%
Total	100%	100%

Nifty & FII Data Analysis for 18 July 2014

• FIIs bought 13636 contracts of Index Future (bought 6553 long contracts and 7083 short contracts were squared off) with net OI decreasing by 530 contracts. FIIs were net buyers today.
• Slowly FII started buying and also covered some short contracts which are a good positive sign. Nifty unable to cross resistance of 7660 as suggested in last write up and made high of 7655.65 If once nifty cross this level then upside 7700 – 7740 levels are on cards.
• Nifty has able to close and sustain above 7585 resistance level which will act as a strong support in nifty now. There will be a big move expected in coming days.
• Tomorrow is a weekly closing and bulls are trying to close above 7700 and bears will try to close below 7590.

Nifty & FII Data Analysis for 17 July 2014

• FIIs sold 630 contracts of Index Future (bought 18754 long contracts and 19384 short contracts were added) with net OI increasing by 38138 contracts. FIIs added both long and short contracts today.
• As discussed in last report nifty exactly bounced as suggested and rallied today. Nifty broke three days range on upside which may bring upward momentum. Again FII started adding short contracts when market just began to rise which gives weak sign in the market.
• Nifty has support at 7595 – 7560 & resistance at 7660 – 7700 (spot).

Nifty & FII Data Analysis for 16 July 2014

• FIIs bought 1794 contracts of Index Future (bought 8503 long contracts and 6709 short contracts were added) with net OI increasing by 15212 contracts. FIIs were net buyers today.
• FII added some short contracts and also bought some long contracts. As discussed in last report nifty bounced from swing low. This momentum will continue in coming days.
• Nifty has support at 7505 – 7460 & resistance at 7570 – 7600 (spot).

Nifty Analysis & FII Data Analysis for 15 July 2014

• FIIs bought 13457 contracts of Index Future (bought 4994 long contracts and 8463 short contracts were squared off) with net OI decreasing by 3469 contracts. FIIs were net buyers today.

• FII covered some short contracts and nifty today consolidating whole time. Nifty trading at swing low and volume not support today’s fall & also nifty made a hammer candlestick pattern today which shows a bullish signal.

• Nifty retraced 61.8% of up swing 7118 to 7808 and trading at support levels around 7460 now 78.8% level comes at 7380 which act as a strong support.

• If nifty will not break support at 7460 – 7380 then possible bounce in nifty till 7600 – 7640 odd levels can’t be rules out. 

Mid Term Pick- Buy Thermax Ltd.

·        Stock has made 52 week high 926.50 (11^th June 2014) & 52 week low 526 (5^th Sept. 2014)
·        Stock has given probable up flag breakout by closing above 920 levels which is bullish signal.
·        Stock was consolidating from past few trading sessions and finally able to manage come out of range.
·        As per RSI it was resisting at level of 65 in the month of May 2014 and now at same level it takes support which suggest bullish signal.
·        Other Indicators like MACD, ROC & ADX suggest buy signal.
·        Stock is above its 20 days SMA, 50 day EMA & 200 days EMA suggest strong uptrend.



Strategy - Buy Thermax Ltd. CMP- 920 Target- 1100-1150 SL- 890 (Closing basis- Time: 2-3 months).

Buy Wonderla Holiday

Analysis:

·         Stock has given probable up flag breakout on daily chart by big white candle closing above channel in blue color.
·         Stock is in uptrend buy following higher top higher bottom pattern on daily chart.
·         Stock is coming out of range after few days of consolidation suggest the uptrend may resume from here and bullish strength in this counter.  

Strategy: Buy Wonderla Holiday at CMP- 212.85 and add on dips for possible Target- 265 with stop below 205 on daily closing basis.

Short Term Pick: Hind Zinc

Analysis:

• ·         Stock has made 52 week high of 170 (3^rd June 2014) & Low of 94 (2^nd Aug 2013).
• ·         Stock has given a probable up flag pattern breakout which is a continuation price pattern.
• ·         Indicators like ADX, RSI, ROC & MACD suggest buy signal.  
• ·         Stock is above its 20 days SMA, 50 days EMA, 100 days EMA & 200 days EMA suggest it’s in uptrend.

Strategy: Buy Hind Zinc at CMP- 168.40 and add on dips for possible Target- 190/ 200 with stop below 161 on daily closing basis.

Live Show- Second Session 31/5/2014 at GUJARAT NEWS (GTPL)

Dear Traders/ Investors,

I am pleased to announce that myself Mr. Yagnesh Patel (Sr. Technical Analyst, Trader & Trainer) is coming LIVE on Saturday, May 31 (Tomorrow) at GUJARAT NEWS channel (GTPL) at 5:00 PM.

In this LIVE show below topics will be covered:

Ø  Technical review on current week scenario.

Ø  Views for coming week on Nifty, Bank Nifty & Sensex.

Ø  Answering queries in LIVE programme 

In addition he will be suggesting stocks for short term period. 

In last show on 23 May 2014 he had recommended following stocks in the show:

Thank you. 

My Live Show on TV Channel

Dear All,

Myself Yagnesh Patel (Sr. Technical Analyst) coming LIVE on FRIDAY, May23,2014 at GUJARAT NEWS channel (GTPL) at night 10 PM.

In this LIVE show below topics will be covered:

Ø  Technical review on current week scenario.Ø  Views for coming week on Nifty, Bank Nifty & Sensex.Ø  Answering queries in LIVE programme 

In addition he will be suggesting stocks for short term period. 

Regards,

Yagnesh Patel

Sr. Technical Analyst & Trader 

Short Term Pick: Wel Corp

Analysis:

• ·         Stock has given flag breakout on daily chart by big white candle closing above trendline.  
• ·         Stock is in uptrend buy following higher top higher bottom pattern on daily chart.
• ·         Stock is tagging upper Bollinger band and closed out of this band suggest bullish strength in this counter.
• ·         Indicators like RSI, MACD, ROC & ADX suggesting buy signal.
• ·         Stock is above its 20 days SMA, 50 days EMA, 100 days EMA & 200 days EMA suggest it’s in uptrend.

Strategy: Buy Welcorp at CMP- 77.65 for possible Target- 100 with stop below 72 on daily closing basis.

Mid Term Pick: Buy TV Today

Analysis:

•            Stock is forming huge rounding bottom pattern from 2009 to present and now facing resistance at 124.
•      Stock is tagging upper Bollinger band which suggest upward strength in this counter.   
•      The momentum oscillator RSI taking support of trendline & ADX slope is raising and price too suggest strong up trend.
•      The yearly ROC is in the positive zone which is again positive sign.
•      Further stock is above its 20 day SMA, 50 days EMA, 100 days EMA and 200 day EMA which suggests  the stock is in up trend.

Considering above all factors,

            Buy TV Today CMP- 124.05 and add on dips to 114 for the possible target 150- 170- 200 with the stop loss of 106 on weekly closing basis. Some sharp up move expected above 125 up to 150. (Time period: 2-3 months)

Short Term Pick- Buy Bombay Dying

Short Term Pick: Buy J.B. Chemical & Pharma

Analysis:

• Stock is forming triangle formation on daily chart with taking support as shown by horizontal line.

• Stock is corrected up to 78.8% from its high of 139.20 and enters in consolidation phase. And recently it came out of range suggest it may resume upward momentum.

• Indicators like RSI, MACD, ADX and ROC suggest buying signals.

• Stock is above its 20 days SMA, 50 days EMA, 100 days EMA & 200 days EMA suggest uptrend.

Strategy: Buy JB Chemical at CMP- 134.85 and add on dips to 130 for possible Target- 154/ 165 with stop below 125 on daily closing basis.

FII Data Analysis for 5 March

1) FIIs bought 22080 contracts of Index Future (bought 24915 long contracts and 2835 short contracts

    were added) with net OI increasing by 27750 contracts.

2) FII bought long and also create shorts and stayed net buyers in index future. Nifty closed near the

    psychosocial barrier around 6350. Nifty has to stay above 6250 to maintain bullish sentiment.

3) Nifty Trading Strategy: Buy Nifty Fut above 6345 Target- 6368/ 6375  SL- 6328                                                                   Sell Nifty Fut below 6315 Target- 6294/ 6285  SL- 6334

: Buy Canara bank - Short Term Pick

     Analysis:

·         Stock entered in correction phase from Dec 2013 to till now and forming a base 210 level.
·         As per Bollinger band stock is tagging the mid band suggest bullish sentiment.
·         Stock may test the upper gap area as shown by horizontal red lines.
·         Indicator ADX, MACD, RSI & ROC analysis suggests buy signal.

Strategy: Buy Canara bank at CMP- 214 and add on dips to 208 for possible Target-  245 / 260 with stop below 204 on daily closing basis. (1-2 months)

Buy BEML Ltd.

Analysis:

• Stock started its upward momentum from Oct. 2013 & made high of 248 in Dec. 2013 and enters in correction phase.

• Stock is corrected 61.8% from its recent high of 248 and after taking support at 180 and forming base there. After few trading sessions stock came out of range.

• Indicator ADX suggests buying signal. Also as per MACD analysis there is a bullish central line cross over suggest positive sign.

• Stock is above its 20 days SMA, 50 days EMA, 100 days EMA & 200 days EMA suggest it’s in uptrend.

Strategy: Buy BEML at CMP- 203 for possible Target- 224/ 232 with stop below 194 on daily closing basis.

FII Data Analysis for 20- Feb

• FIIs bought 5796 contracts of Index Future (bought 1561 long contracts and 4235 short contracts were covered) with net OI decreasing by 2674 contracts.

• Today FII bought long contracts and squared off shorts and stayed net buyers in index future. Today nifty closed above its 50 days EMA and 100 days EMA resistance which signs good. Now it may test upper gap at 6210 (future).

• Nifty Trading Strategy: Buy Nifty Fut above 6168 Target- 6188/ 6205  SL- 6153                                                               Sell Nifty Fut below 6145 Target- 6128/ 6118  SL- 6162

FII Data Analysis for 18- Feb

• FIIs bought 7859 contracts of Index Future (bought 5369 long contracts and 2490 short contracts were covered) with net OI increasing by 2879 contracts.

• Today FII bought long contracts and squared off shorts and stayed net buyers in index future. Very heavy open interest built up in 6000 PE and some contracts squared off from 5900 PE suggest some bounce back is possible.

• Buy Nifty Fut only above 6100 Target- 6126/ 6138  SL- 6082
• Sell Nifty Fut below 6075 Target- 6058/ 6045  SL- 6092

Buy Sun Pharma - Short Term Pick

Analysis:

• Stock is forming triangle formation on daily chart breaking down slopping trendline.
• Volume rising during the breakout suggests confirmation of breakout.
•  Stock is tagging upper Bollinger band suggest upward strength in this counter.  
• Momentum indicator RSI is in bullish 60 zone suggest buyers action in this counter.
• Stock is above its 20 days SMA, 50 days EMA, 100 days EMA & 200 days EMA suggest uptrend.

Strategy: Buy SUN Pharma at CMP- 611 for possible Target- 635/ 650 with stop below 600 on daily closing basis.

FII Data Analysis for 11- feb

• FIIs bought 1539 contracts of Index Future (square off 1998 long contracts and 3537 short contracts were square off) with net OI decreasing by 5535 contracts.

• FII covers long as well as short both today. Market could not able to sustain at higher levels and FII continue to short on every rally.

• Nifty Trading Strategy: 

             Buy Nifty Fut only above 6085 Target- 6108/ 6120  SL-6068                                             

             Sell Nifty Fut below 6055 Target- 6035/ 6018  SL- 6072

Buy Finolex Industries

Analysis:

·         Stock is forming triangle formation on daily chart with taking support as shown by horizontal line.

·         Stock is corrected 50% from its recent life high of 179.50 and starts consolidate here suggest it may resume upward momentum.

·         Indicators like RSI, MACD, ADX and ROC suggest buying signals.

·         Stock is above its 20 days SMA, 50 days EMA, 100 days EMA & 200 days EMA suggest uptrend.

Strategy: Buy Finolex Industries at CMP- 156 and add on dips to 150 for possible Target- 170- 182 with stop below 146 on daily closing basis.